In the fourth quarter of 2025, the machine tool order index, compiled by the Economic Studies Department & Business Culture Centre of UCIMU-SISTEMI PER PRODURRE, recorded a 13.6% downturn compared to the period October-December 2024. The absolute value of the index stood at 68 (base year 2021=100).
On the domestic front, orders highlighted a 2.9% decrease over the fourth quarter of 2024, for an absolute value of 56.3.
The decline was even more significant in relation to the orders collected overseas, showing a 17.1% fall,compared to the same period last year. The absolute value of the index was 69.3.
On an annual basis, order intake remained positive thanks to the increases reported in the first three quarters, thus achieving +3.1% (absolute index 67.6) compared to the 2024 figure; +38.9% domestic orders, (absolute index 55.1); -9.4% foreign orders (absolute index 76.4).
Riccardo Rosa, president of UCIMU, pointed out: "The overall outcome of the order collection regarding 2025 is in line with that of the last two years and thus disappointing once again”.
“With particular reference to the last quarter - added Riccardo Rosa – it seems clear that the business slowdown in foreign markets was not offset by a substantial recovery in the domestic market.
“On the domestic front, the results prove that the 5.0 plan did not work as it should have. Of course, the measure, together with 4.0, partially stimulated demand on the market, but the numerous starts and stops made everything disjointed and not very smooth until its conclusion in December”.
“Presently, - continued Riccardo Rosa – we are awaiting the implementing decrees for the new measure that will accompany investments in new technologies from now until 2028. Italian companies have high expectations with regard to this measure, especially due to its duration, which enables users to better plan their purchases, thus also allowing for a more effective and efficient distribution of production activity in our enterprises. However, we believe it is essential that the decrees are issued very quickly so that we can operate immediately with clarity, supporting demand at a time when the international scenario is putting a strain on the industrial systems of traditional economies”.
“Turning our gaze abroad, the context of great uncertainty caused by geopolitical instability is a factor that heavily affects the performances of our companies. On the foreign front, they are having many business opportunities precluded. Ongoing conflicts, Trump's trade strategy with continuous backtracking on tariffs, the crisis in the automotive industry and in Germany and the closure and inaccessibility of certain markets, such as Russia and China, are seriously limiting what has always been one of our strengths, namely our export activity”.
“In this connection, – stated Riccardo Rosa – we warmly welcome the recent signing of the free trade agreement between the EU and India, a country with enormous potential for development and growth. Indeed, Italian manufacturers of machine tools, robots and automation will surely be able to take advantage of this potential in the best way. After all, with 135 million euro in exports(in the first nine months of 2025, the latest data available), India is currently our fourth largest export market. We believe that the treaty just signed, together with the revocation by the Indian Ministry of Heavy Industries of the “Omnibus Order”, which should have come into force at the beginning of 2026 and would have required mandatory “Bureau of Indian Standards” (BIS) licence for importing industrial machines, will give further impetus to our business in the area".
“On the contrary – added President Rosa – we consider the decision to submit the EU-Mercosur agreement to the Court for assessment a serious blow to the manufacturing industry and, in particular, to the Italian machine tool industry, which has always paid close attention to emerging markets or markets with fluctuating trends, such as those in the area. Many of those countries, especially Brazil, represent potentially interesting markets for our companies, whose high quality and customised product offerings are extremely appreciated by local users. Therefore, it is necessary to act as soon as possible to implement the agreement, which would also exempt our sales from many customs duties currently in force”.
“Also owing to this agreement, over the least two years, the Association has expanded its initiatives dedicated to Latin America countries. In addition to the exploratory missions in Brazil, organised to strengthen the partnerships with the local system of institutions, companies and representative organisations, UCIMU has started interesting discussions and exchange of views with Argentinian industrial representative organisations in preparation for new collaborations between the industries of the two countries. Moreover, we have not overlooked the so-called “associated countries” and “observers” linked to the agreement, as we are confident that these will also offer Italian manufacturers interesting opportunities. Among the Mercosur associate members, we have focused our attention on Chile where, following a survey mission, a project is being studied to develop a Technology Centre. On the other hand, among observers, our focus is on Mexico, where, since the beginning of 2025, the Oficina Italiana de Promotiòn Mexico has been operating as a desk that works to support Italian companies in learning about and penetrating the relevant market, also concerning the area of Central and North America”.
“We cannot allow – concluded President Rosa - the great potential of companies and the work carried out by organisations such as ours to be nullified by a completely senseless decision. The competitiveness of the European manufacturing industry is at stake”.
